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Duck Hunting Forecast for 2019-20 - Continued
Submitted by: TBC Press
Posted on: 08/26/19
Article # 19-2134
The mid-continent population of lesser snow geese was down about 9 percent, and Ross's goose numbers decreased by about 25 percent. According to the USFWS report, breeding conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic varied from good to lower than average. The mid-continent population of white-fronted geese remained stable from 2018.
Pacific Flyway
British Columbia’s total duck estimate was 18 percent higher than in 2018 and 19 percent higher than the long-term average. In central and northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia and the Northwest Territories, the mallard estimates were similar to those of 2018 and 48 percent higher than the long-term average. Mallard estimates in southern Alberta were 27 percent lower than the 2018 estimate but similar to the long-term average.
Stateside, numbers varied. Total duck estimates in California, Oregon and Washington were similar to 2018 figures. California and Oregon’s numbers were similar to long-term averages, but Washington’s was 32 percent higher. In Nevada, the mallard estimate was 28 percent lower than the 2018 estimate but 23 percent higher than the long-term average.
The Pacific population of white-fronted geese decreased about 19 percent from its 2018 estimate but was only down about 1 percent in the 10-year trend. The flyway’s population of light geese increased by about 4 percent, and the Wrangel Island (Russia) population of lesser snow geese jumped about 45 percent.
Wait and See
Breeding waterfowl numbers and habitat conditions provide a glimpse of what waterfowlers might expect, but hunting success depends on many factors.
“So when the prairies were dry last year, it hurt duck production and, in turn, duck hunters,” says Rohwer. “We saw it in Louisiana and elsewhere. But this year, ducks nested and re-nested in the U.S. prairies with a vengeance and should have high brood survival in those landscapes.”
Strong production in the American prairies, he adds, should increase the number of juveniles in the fall flight, and young birds typically decoy more easily than adults.
Moorman says weather and other factors will also play huge roles in how hunters judge the 2019-’20 season.
“Ultimately … hunting success and numbers of birds observed will vary with the onset of fall and winter cold fronts and arrival of winter conditions necessary to force birds to migrate, and also with regional habitat conditions,” he says.
So, duck and goose hunters will wait optimistically for opening day, knowing that Mother Nature has at least set the stage.
Image and article courtesy of Outdoor Life
Stock Image
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Central Flyway - Continued
Elsewhere in the flyway, numbers varied depending on habitat conditions. The mallard estimate in Montana and the western Dakotas was similar to that of 2018 and 45 percent higher than the long-term average.
Estimates from northern Saskatchewan, western Ontario, and southern and northern Manitoba were similar to 2018 estimates and long-term averages. Mallard numbers in southern Saskatchewan were 18 percent lower than the 2018 estimate and 19 percent lower than the long-term average.
